NCAA Division III National Championships Preview
The Bracket Breakdown
Top 4 Seeds
Utica, Adrian, Endicott, Hobart
The selection committee did no favors to Utica and defending champion Adrian as the top half of the bracket will be an absolute grind. All 6 teams in the top half of the bracket have a realistic chance of getting to the national title game. On the bottom half of the bracket, Plattsburgh and Curry (assuming they get past their first-round match-ups) are threats to top seeds Hobart and Endicott.
Conference Champions
CCC - Endicott College
MASCAC - Plymouth State
MIAC - Augsburg University
NEHC - Hobart College
NESCAC - Bowdoin College
NCHC - Adrian College
SUNYAC - Plattsburgh State
UCHC - Utica College
WIAC - UW Stevens Point
At Large Bids
Curry College
University of New England
Norwich College
Favorites
Endicott College
The Gulls of Endicott have been at the top of their game for a while and are battle tested. They enter the National tournament with an overall record of 23-2-2 and a CCC record of 18-1-2. Endicott features an experienced forward group that is deep and not shy of talent. On the back end and in the net they have been up to the task all year with only averaging 1.50 Goals Against which is good enough for top 5 in the country.
Why They Can Win
The Gulls have a forward group that is deep and will be a hard match-up for any of their opponents as they are so balanced. On any given night coach RJ Tolans line up can have 12 forwards that have double-digit point totals this season. Junior Forward Jackson Sterrett comes into the National Tournament with 12 points in his last 8 games.
Why They Can Lose
Whoever coach Tolan decides to roll within the net whether it is Sophomore Ryan Wilson or Sophomore Atticus Kelly lacks NCAA Tournament experience. Wilson and Kelly both have had fantastic years and are coming from solid junior careers in the NAHL. However, the NCAA tournament is a different amount of pressure, will they be able to handle it?
Utica College
Coming in with an overall record of 25-2-1 and a perfect conference record of 20-0-0 it is easy to see why Gary Heenan's team is the number 1 team in the country. This group is not necessarily the oldest group in the tournament but they may have the deepest roster from top to bottom in the tournament.
Why They Can Win
Special teams. With a penalty kill percentage of 95.8 percent on the year and a power play percentage of 28.9 percent, Utica is a match-up nightmare for any team. The Utica roster features 10 players with multiple power play goals on the year. Junior forward Remy Parker leads the group with 8 power play goals.
Why They Can Lose
Utica is clearly the top team in a down UCHC conference. Utica has gone much of the second half of the season without any really tough tests on their schedule. Can they match up with Plymouth and UNE in the quarters who will battle it out in the first round? The Pioneers will have to rise to the standard of their opponent and can not afford to be asleep. If they are still on cruise control it may be an early exit from the tournament.
The Underdog
UW-Stevens Point
Every team in the NCAA D3 tournament is talented and history has shown us that. It's hard to consider Stevens Point an underdog but they are the most inexperienced team in terms of NCAA tournament play in the top side of the bracket. A pretty favorable matchup vs Augsburg in round 1 is a good draw for the top team out of the WIAC. Stevens Point handled Augsburg pretty easily back on January 7th defeating them 4-0. Assuming we get a similar result, Stevens Point will have to travel to Adrian in what will be an absolute battle to go to the semi-finals.
Why They Can Win
Senior goaltender Ryan Wagner who is having a fantastic season with a 93.1 save percentage and an overall 10-3-1 record, has the potential to be an X factor in this tournament.
Yes, to get to the National Title game Stevens Point will have to go through teams that have been in the dance already including defending national champion Adrian College. But everyone is forgetting Ryan Wagner was a member of the Stevens-Point 2018-2019 national title run and has the most experience at the most important position.
Why They Can Lose
The path to the national title will be very difficult for Stevens-Point and may be too grueling for them to overcome. Every game they will play in the tournament they will be the least experienced team. Augsburg has been here before and features a group of Seniors looking to make a run.
Adrian is the defending national champion who is a potential quarter-final match-up. If they advance to the semi-final they will have to play a combination of Utica, Plymouth or the University of New England who all have been here before. That is a brutal stretch for this talented team.
Photo Source - Athletics.UWSP.com
First Round Predictions
Plymouth vs University of New England - Winner : UNE
Wis-Stevens Point vs Augsburg - Winner : Stevens Point
Plattsburgh vs Norwich - Winner : Plattsburgh
Curry vs Bowdoin - Winner : Curry
Quarterfinal Predictions
Utica vs University of New England - Winner : Utica
Stevens Point vs Adrian - Winner : Adrian
Endicott vs Plattsburgh - Winner : Endicott
Curry vs Hobart - Winner: Curry
Final Four Predictions
Utica vs Adrian - Winner : Utica
Curry vs Endicott- Winner : Endicott
Final
Utica vs Endicott - Winner : Utica
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